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Charles Wylie Kelly's avatar

Brilliantly structured presentation. The Stock Market is already shaky, but, with the list of potential corporate targets this could accelerate further decline. Iran and Allies learned a lot from the 12 day fiasco last summer. This War is just another move on the chessboard. The belligerents have long term plans.

Mitka's avatar

“In much the same way Egypt was the last country Britain faced as a superpower, so too do I think Iran will be the last one we face as number one.”

I was able to get an essay from a drone operator at Holloman about the present state of things (of course, more a meditation than actual policy details.)

https://nathankyoung.substack.com/p/finding-remote-work-as-a-drone-operator?r=2kp7ol

Ghanbari Mohsen's avatar

Beyond the significant economic benefits, Iran's potential for massive investment, and its vital geopolitical and geostrategic position—Iran could even be the United States' best option for containing China's rising power and influence—there is a much more critical factor that receives too little attention: the Islamic Republic’s acquisition of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles increases the risk of a third world war to unprecedented levels. What political analysts often overlook is the true nature of the regime ruling Iran. Driven by a deeply destructive, anti-human ideology and apocalyptic beliefs, this government shows no respect for any form of democracy; within this system, the value of human life is entirely conditional. For years, in efforts to gain favor with "Comrade Putin" and secure Russian support, the regime has wasted vast national wealth—assets belonging to the people—on establishing, arming, fully financing, and advising radical Islamist militias like Iraq’s Hashd al-Shaabi, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Hamas, and others. These resources are used to stir regional crises and sow prolonged chaos, all to serve the whims of their master, Putin. Sadly, the prevailing narrative among politicians and analysts inflates this puppet regime into a monstrous adversary in the confrontation with the U.S., while seemingly failing to understand a crucial point: the Islamic Republic lost its legitimacy among the people and in the court of public opinion long ago. On the 18th and 19th of Dey, 1404—in just two days—the ruling regime opened fire across all Iranian cities on massive crowds of protesters threatening to overthrow the government, slaughtering tens of thousands in the streets. Through this massacre, the regime sent a clear message to the United States and Israel: any attempt to overthrow us will be met instantly with bullets. Today, the U.S. and Israel recognize that they are not dealing with a government that follows normal standards. By deliberately desecrating the bodies of those killed in Dey and crossing every humanitarian red line, the regime demonstrated its commitment to nothing but its own survival at any cost. What currently restrains Trump and Bibi—more than anything else—from dismantling this regime is not the Strait of Hormuz; it is the fact that over 90 million people are being held hostage by a government willing to see itself maimed—even losing its own limbs—rather than relinquish its grip on power.

Steve O’Cally's avatar

Politically, the US isn’t the home team anywhere except at home. A knee to the balls for Uncle Sam gets you noticed. Iran has been internationally disliked, but every time they batter the u s a, the more attaboys they get all over. Iran has been the Snidely Whiplash of the world, they like the cheers for a change.

David Ginsburg's avatar

As an aside, since Iran rests her case for attacking American military bases in the sovereign Gulf States on Article 51 of the UN Charter, citing the self defence clause, this must surely warrant a reexamination of Russia’s case to do the same thing in Ukraine. These are murky waters, especially given the exceptions hitherto granted under Article 51. At this point, the issue is academic for all practical purposes, but nevertheless interesting. Particularly if we combine such an undertaking with a closer inspection of international law governing the rights of a country or group to secede from another.

Rotem_OK's avatar

Hi!

Here’s my analysis on the geostrategic position of the U.S., in light of the Iran war - and what I would have advised the President

https://rotemok.substack.com/p/state-of-the-union-not-the-address?r=73tigt&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

mary-lou's avatar

wouldn't we all.