War on Iran is part of the US empire's plan to re-impose unipolar dominance on the global financial system, preserve dollar hegemony, and disrupt Eurasian integration, argues economist Michael Hudson.
As usual Hudson delivers another brilliant analysis! Anyone who has been paying attention knows this to be true. The pitiful delusional West has had its greedy eyes on the Asian heartland for a very long time; refusing to accept its allotted place under the sun.
As it is Western populations are catatonic slave states totally indifferent and ignorant of how ruthlessly we are being exploited. It is no coincidence we are the world's most heavily propagandized peoples. It is deeply alarming how embedded the lies of the empire are embedded in Western populations and the unwillingness to recognize the enemy is within the gates and it is impoverishing us all.
The hideous part of these wars is that they are being fought at a time in history least affordable with profound existential consequences for the whole planet.
As the West becomes a very dark place the East is on an meteoric rise based on peace and prosperity for all. It appears now these forever wars will only end when the empire totally exhausts itself. Only then will the scorching lament be upon us in the West.
Whom the gods would destroy they first of all infantilize and render catatonic. The ensuing madness is on autopilot.
restore the dying US petrodollar privilege and hence financial hegemony, and
disrupt/destabilise an essential BRICS hub linking East to West and North to South.
The unprovoked invasion of Iraq by the USA in 2003 was 100% about maintaining the US petrodollar privilege. It occurred shortly after Saddam declared he was going to sell his oil in Euros rather than USD. Immediately after the US invasion, all Iraqi oil exports were again denominated in USD. A year or so after the invasion, the US occupiers starting selling off the Iraqi oil fields they had stolen. They auctioned their ill gotten gains to the highest bidders including the Chinese. The US then bleated, "hey look, we are selling Iraqi oilfields to non-US companies, which proves our invasion was NOT about oil".
Bullshit.
Why go to all the trouble and cost of physically extracting and exporting petroleum with all the attendant maintenance hassles, when you can simply get other dumb suckers to do all the hard work and you get all that oil value for FREE courtesy of your petrodollar privilege? Iraqi oil exported by a Chinese company can only be sold to a buyer eg Germany using USD ,which the Germans obtain by exporting high tech / luxury German goods to the USA which the USA "buys" by simply electronically printing USD out of NOTHING. That windfall does not go to the US people, it is pocketed by the Fed (= a consortium of private banks) and then used to fund the nefarious activities of the Blob.
No more petrodollar, no more nefarious activities of the Blob.
The US invasion of Iraq was initially termed "Operation Iraqi Liberation" or OIL, but that was too obvious, so they changed it to "Operation Iraqi Freedom".
The West did not make the same mistake of calling their recent unprovoked attacks against Iran "Operation Iranian Liberation" or OIL, they instead called it "Operation Cringing Rabbit" or some other stupid animal.
I am sick of the careless trope endlessly thrown about that the USA is the "largest" producer of oil and a "major" exporter of oil and hence is oil independent and therefore does not need significant petroleum imports and therefore can weather any curtailment in global (non-US) oil availability better than any other country. WRONG, WRONG, WRONG.
How do you know a paradigm is true? It is based on irrefutable facts, unassailable logic and is UNFALSIFIABLE. Furthermore it is the best explanation for a situation and best foundation for predicting outcomes.
So please, please, please someone, show me that the assertions I outline below are untrue, are illogical and can be falsified. Please show me a better explanation based on energy, geophysics and chemistry, to explain the USA's oil situation and that you have a better predictor than I have.
The USA is UTTERLY DEPENDENT on imported conventional petroleum which it still gets for FREE due to its petrodollar privilege. No petrodollar privilege, no imported petroleum, no US industry, no US agriculture, no US economy and no production of US shale LTO which is NOT petroleum. US shale LTO is low density paint thinner that the USA largely is unable to process hence must export to other countries for refinement to gasoline equivalent fuel which has limited uses (cars, lawnmowers, weed whackers, small piston engine planes etc). US refineries were built to handle conventional crude oil, not shale LTO. Ultimately US shale LTO is USELESS when it comes to running the essential big machinery of industry, transport and agriculture.
I cannot repeat this enough:
The USA may be a high GROSS producer of lousy EROEI unconventional oil (LTO, NOT petroleum) and lousy EROEI unconventional gas, but it is a low NET producer of oil and gas.
The USA needs imported petroleum (primarily the diesel fraction) to physically extract domestic unconventional oil and gas, and it gets the former free due to its petrodollar privilege.
No petrodollar privilege, no domestic US production of oil and gas. Simple.
Note that the workhorse fractions of petroleum, which are diesel and jet fuel (=low sulphur kerosene), CANNOT be made from US LTO unless blended with heavier, higher density petroleum or Athabascan tar sand fractions and the latter is also unconventional super expensive poor EROEI scammery.
I am so frustrated that I am unable to get people to understand these indisputable FACTS based on hard Physics, Chemistry and Geophysical REALITIES, truths about oil and gas which have TREMENDOUS geopolitical/economic implications.
Truths that the fossil fuel scammers are dead set on keeping the public ignorant about.
NO ENERGY = NO ECONOMY = MASS HUMAN DIEOFF
Ben, Michael and Radhika do superb jobs with their geopolitical and economic research but need to expand their understanding to wider crucial matters or they will remain partially blind, which means being blindsided by future events.
A geopolitical economist who is blind to energy matters is like a pilot-navigator who does not look at his fuel gauge.
A geopolitical economist who is blind to climate change and ecodestruction issues is like a pilot-navigator who does not look at his storm radar displaying a massive thunderstorm ahead.
Both are partially blind, fatally so.
Chris Hedges is a brilliant geopolitical analyst who unfortunately lacks even a proper awareness of economic matters, much less any understanding of energy or climate science or ecology.
He wrote a hopelessly despairing piece regarding the outlook for the Gazans which I debunked here
As an example of suffering from severe blindspots, ignorance of the nature of oil geophysics and chemistry and economics that taint one's judgement, I add my comment on this interview with Dr Paul Craig Roberts who is an esteemed economist and former US government advisor/insider and widely considered a realist astute geopolitical commentator.
that the USA is more likely to close the Straits of Hormuz than Iran because the ultimate agenda of the USA is to hurt China and China will be much more adversely affected by curtailment of Persian Gulf oil exports than the USA.
The implicit assumptions behind his assertion are seriously flawed.
He thinks that the USA, being the world's largest domestic oil "producer", will hardly be affected, but China, which now receives up to half of its oil via Hormuz, will be much more severely hurt.
Although it is true that China's economy would be severely hurt, it is far more likely the USA's economy would be much more severely hurt and much sooner.
These are the flaws in PCR's assumptions, here is what he does know know or admit:
Oil output (production of LTO) domestically in the USA is dependent on imported inputs that facilitate the US production. The primary input without which there can be no output is DIESEL. USA's oil production is basically shale LTO. The USA produces very little diesel from their legacy conventional petroleum fields which are basically tapped out. It is impossible to produce diesel from LTO unless blended from heavy petroleum imported fractions or super expensive tar sand fractions, also imported. Result: oil availability in the USA becomes very scarce, oil prices in the USA will skyrocket.
The USA is utterly dependent on diesel to run everything: long distance trucking, locomotives, all agricultural machinery, all mining and construction machinery etc. Alice Friedemann's important book "When the trucks stop running"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-J58QAj3js outlines how utterly dependent the USA is on diesel, essentially everything grinds to a halt without diesel, which today is all essentially imported. Result: the entire US economy collapses.
Jet fuel also cannot be made from LTO and is largely imported. No jet fuel, no transcontinental high speed travel within the USA. Result: the US aviation industy collapses.
The USA's strategic petroleum reserve has essentially been drawn down to a tiny puddle by the US government to keep prices at the pump down.
China by contrast has maintained a huge strategic petroleum reserve to last several months. Furthermore any severe sudden curtailment of petroleum will be managed by rationing to key sectors, to ensure basic systems continue to function and people do not face skyrocketing food prices. Furthermore much of China's transportation system is electrified and powered by nuclear energy, coal or hydro. Hence the high speed cross country trains and the city metros will keep running and a large proportion of buses, taxis and personal vehicles will be unaffected, being electric these days.
China will continue to receive petroleum from Russia and now with its direct rail connection to Tehran, oil tankers can be delivered overland from Iran to China. Iran can also potentially export oil to China from its Indian Ocean ports such as Chabahar. Furthermore the Caspian sea states (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan etc) are major oil exporters and can also deliver oil overland to China. The USA does not have these options.
So whereas PCR is right that the USA may be motivated to close Hormuz based on the flawed thinking that he shares, the consequences of such closure will be vastly different to what he expects due to his lack of understanding of the geophysics and chemistry and economy of oil.
PS: Permian basin shale oil output is poised to fall off the Hubbert cliff in the next few years, irrespective of "drill, baby, drill"
As usual Hudson delivers another brilliant analysis! Anyone who has been paying attention knows this to be true. The pitiful delusional West has had its greedy eyes on the Asian heartland for a very long time; refusing to accept its allotted place under the sun.
As it is Western populations are catatonic slave states totally indifferent and ignorant of how ruthlessly we are being exploited. It is no coincidence we are the world's most heavily propagandized peoples. It is deeply alarming how embedded the lies of the empire are embedded in Western populations and the unwillingness to recognize the enemy is within the gates and it is impoverishing us all.
The hideous part of these wars is that they are being fought at a time in history least affordable with profound existential consequences for the whole planet.
As the West becomes a very dark place the East is on an meteoric rise based on peace and prosperity for all. It appears now these forever wars will only end when the empire totally exhausts itself. Only then will the scorching lament be upon us in the West.
Whom the gods would destroy they first of all infantilize and render catatonic. The ensuing madness is on autopilot.
Great one as always... Thank you! I learned quite a lot...
Nice history lesson. Let's fast forward to the present and near future where the Empire shows its moving parts.
https://open.substack.com/pub/ddgeopolitics/p/the-abraham-shield-israels-new-blueprint
Good work. The transport graphs are terrific. Excellent reference material for Ukraine conflict as well. They are all connected.
EXCELLENT. Recommend reading this to everyone.
Send this to the idiotic EU!
Comment 1
It is true that the real reason for the collective West attack on Iran was "regime change" or more precisely and more accurately
REGIME REPLACEMENT with SUBSERVIENT STOOGES, RRSS
https://scheerpost.com/2025/06/23/trump-suggests-he-wants-regime-change-in-iran/#comment-117635
in order to:
restore the dying US petrodollar privilege and hence financial hegemony, and
disrupt/destabilise an essential BRICS hub linking East to West and North to South.
The unprovoked invasion of Iraq by the USA in 2003 was 100% about maintaining the US petrodollar privilege. It occurred shortly after Saddam declared he was going to sell his oil in Euros rather than USD. Immediately after the US invasion, all Iraqi oil exports were again denominated in USD. A year or so after the invasion, the US occupiers starting selling off the Iraqi oil fields they had stolen. They auctioned their ill gotten gains to the highest bidders including the Chinese. The US then bleated, "hey look, we are selling Iraqi oilfields to non-US companies, which proves our invasion was NOT about oil".
Bullshit.
Why go to all the trouble and cost of physically extracting and exporting petroleum with all the attendant maintenance hassles, when you can simply get other dumb suckers to do all the hard work and you get all that oil value for FREE courtesy of your petrodollar privilege? Iraqi oil exported by a Chinese company can only be sold to a buyer eg Germany using USD ,which the Germans obtain by exporting high tech / luxury German goods to the USA which the USA "buys" by simply electronically printing USD out of NOTHING. That windfall does not go to the US people, it is pocketed by the Fed (= a consortium of private banks) and then used to fund the nefarious activities of the Blob.
No more petrodollar, no more nefarious activities of the Blob.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/e213zifezrqth7v60uyh1/HOW-THE-US-empire-WORKSver2.jpg?rlkey=weayo3zxv1xrvayz8xiw93lhx&st=ui3tad9y&dl=1
The US invasion of Iraq was initially termed "Operation Iraqi Liberation" or OIL, but that was too obvious, so they changed it to "Operation Iraqi Freedom".
The West did not make the same mistake of calling their recent unprovoked attacks against Iran "Operation Iranian Liberation" or OIL, they instead called it "Operation Cringing Rabbit" or some other stupid animal.
I am sick of the careless trope endlessly thrown about that the USA is the "largest" producer of oil and a "major" exporter of oil and hence is oil independent and therefore does not need significant petroleum imports and therefore can weather any curtailment in global (non-US) oil availability better than any other country. WRONG, WRONG, WRONG.
How do you know a paradigm is true? It is based on irrefutable facts, unassailable logic and is UNFALSIFIABLE. Furthermore it is the best explanation for a situation and best foundation for predicting outcomes.
So please, please, please someone, show me that the assertions I outline below are untrue, are illogical and can be falsified. Please show me a better explanation based on energy, geophysics and chemistry, to explain the USA's oil situation and that you have a better predictor than I have.
The USA is UTTERLY DEPENDENT on imported conventional petroleum which it still gets for FREE due to its petrodollar privilege. No petrodollar privilege, no imported petroleum, no US industry, no US agriculture, no US economy and no production of US shale LTO which is NOT petroleum. US shale LTO is low density paint thinner that the USA largely is unable to process hence must export to other countries for refinement to gasoline equivalent fuel which has limited uses (cars, lawnmowers, weed whackers, small piston engine planes etc). US refineries were built to handle conventional crude oil, not shale LTO. Ultimately US shale LTO is USELESS when it comes to running the essential big machinery of industry, transport and agriculture.
I cannot repeat this enough:
The USA may be a high GROSS producer of lousy EROEI unconventional oil (LTO, NOT petroleum) and lousy EROEI unconventional gas, but it is a low NET producer of oil and gas.
The USA needs imported petroleum (primarily the diesel fraction) to physically extract domestic unconventional oil and gas, and it gets the former free due to its petrodollar privilege.
No petrodollar privilege, no domestic US production of oil and gas. Simple.
Note that the workhorse fractions of petroleum, which are diesel and jet fuel (=low sulphur kerosene), CANNOT be made from US LTO unless blended with heavier, higher density petroleum or Athabascan tar sand fractions and the latter is also unconventional super expensive poor EROEI scammery.
I am so frustrated that I am unable to get people to understand these indisputable FACTS based on hard Physics, Chemistry and Geophysical REALITIES, truths about oil and gas which have TREMENDOUS geopolitical/economic implications.
Truths that the fossil fuel scammers are dead set on keeping the public ignorant about.
NO ENERGY = NO ECONOMY = MASS HUMAN DIEOFF
Ben, Michael and Radhika do superb jobs with their geopolitical and economic research but need to expand their understanding to wider crucial matters or they will remain partially blind, which means being blindsided by future events.
A geopolitical economist who is blind to energy matters is like a pilot-navigator who does not look at his fuel gauge.
A geopolitical economist who is blind to climate change and ecodestruction issues is like a pilot-navigator who does not look at his storm radar displaying a massive thunderstorm ahead.
Both are partially blind, fatally so.
Chris Hedges is a brilliant geopolitical analyst who unfortunately lacks even a proper awareness of economic matters, much less any understanding of energy or climate science or ecology.
He wrote a hopelessly despairing piece regarding the outlook for the Gazans which I debunked here
https://scheerpost.com/2025/06/16/the-last-days-of-gaza-read-by-eunice-wong/#comment-117314
His view is limited by lack of understanding of wider economic and energy issues which I mentioned here:
https://scheerpost.com/2025/06/14/chris-hedges-the-folly-of-a-war-with-iran/#comment-117236
Comment 2
As an example of suffering from severe blindspots, ignorance of the nature of oil geophysics and chemistry and economics that taint one's judgement, I add my comment on this interview with Dr Paul Craig Roberts who is an esteemed economist and former US government advisor/insider and widely considered a realist astute geopolitical commentator.
He said in this interview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olK178dNNIU
that the USA is more likely to close the Straits of Hormuz than Iran because the ultimate agenda of the USA is to hurt China and China will be much more adversely affected by curtailment of Persian Gulf oil exports than the USA.
The implicit assumptions behind his assertion are seriously flawed.
He thinks that the USA, being the world's largest domestic oil "producer", will hardly be affected, but China, which now receives up to half of its oil via Hormuz, will be much more severely hurt.
Although it is true that China's economy would be severely hurt, it is far more likely the USA's economy would be much more severely hurt and much sooner.
These are the flaws in PCR's assumptions, here is what he does know know or admit:
Oil output (production of LTO) domestically in the USA is dependent on imported inputs that facilitate the US production. The primary input without which there can be no output is DIESEL. USA's oil production is basically shale LTO. The USA produces very little diesel from their legacy conventional petroleum fields which are basically tapped out. It is impossible to produce diesel from LTO unless blended from heavy petroleum imported fractions or super expensive tar sand fractions, also imported. Result: oil availability in the USA becomes very scarce, oil prices in the USA will skyrocket.
The USA is utterly dependent on diesel to run everything: long distance trucking, locomotives, all agricultural machinery, all mining and construction machinery etc. Alice Friedemann's important book "When the trucks stop running"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-J58QAj3js outlines how utterly dependent the USA is on diesel, essentially everything grinds to a halt without diesel, which today is all essentially imported. Result: the entire US economy collapses.
Jet fuel also cannot be made from LTO and is largely imported. No jet fuel, no transcontinental high speed travel within the USA. Result: the US aviation industy collapses.
The USA's strategic petroleum reserve has essentially been drawn down to a tiny puddle by the US government to keep prices at the pump down.
China by contrast has maintained a huge strategic petroleum reserve to last several months. Furthermore any severe sudden curtailment of petroleum will be managed by rationing to key sectors, to ensure basic systems continue to function and people do not face skyrocketing food prices. Furthermore much of China's transportation system is electrified and powered by nuclear energy, coal or hydro. Hence the high speed cross country trains and the city metros will keep running and a large proportion of buses, taxis and personal vehicles will be unaffected, being electric these days.
China will continue to receive petroleum from Russia and now with its direct rail connection to Tehran, oil tankers can be delivered overland from Iran to China. Iran can also potentially export oil to China from its Indian Ocean ports such as Chabahar. Furthermore the Caspian sea states (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan etc) are major oil exporters and can also deliver oil overland to China. The USA does not have these options.
So whereas PCR is right that the USA may be motivated to close Hormuz based on the flawed thinking that he shares, the consequences of such closure will be vastly different to what he expects due to his lack of understanding of the geophysics and chemistry and economy of oil.
PS: Permian basin shale oil output is poised to fall off the Hubbert cliff in the next few years, irrespective of "drill, baby, drill"