Reports suggest the US economy may be on the verge of another financial crisis, with major problems in the $3 trillion private credit market. Economist Michael Hudson explains the dangers.
- Why aren't there any journalists asking experts for an 'item' by 'item' estimation timeline of financial effects for 'everyday' Americans based on:
🔻fuel/energy shortages/losses(Hormuz closure+'infrastructure' loss) ❌ supply chain disruptions ❌shortages of food & 'goods' (i.e. all the commodities made from oil & the byproducts of oil refining) ❌ job loss due to all of the above ❌ the eventual loss of the Petro-dollar ❌ etc....?????⁉
It may need a conversation that comes as a result of a brainstorming 'session' by a varied group of geopolitical economists -
- the average (or even topmost) Market analyst or Keynesian just is not well-informed enough about ALL the factors we are facing in this 'perfect storm' of ECONOMIC CATASTROPHE our country is facing..
Thank you for yet another excellent post. And climate change is speeding up. Any "stability" is an illusion. Maybe AI can figure out how to bail itself out...better hurry.
The USA audience can understand the private debt market and especially those under 35 yrs old, many of whom suffer usurious interest rates, including student debt. I must have missed the point for international viewers, and the impact on their markets, since I didn't get the leverage factor, similar to the 2008 debacle with highly inflated mortgages. So, my question is "has US private debt been marketed abroad in a similar way as Merrill, DLJ and others did back then"?
Hormuz is just another episode of WW III. News Broke that the US could choke Malacca two in coordination with Indonesia. This is the maritime blockade China was preparing to since the Belt and Road initicative was launched. In the meantime, the US has achieved to beat oil export records and regain the dollar position linked to the oil world monopoly. That, the re-industrialitation of the country by weapons manufacturing and the opening of crypto as legal tender are the three pillars of the Trump's bunch strategy. Forget about the daily comedy and PR stunts. What matters is the rearrangement of the world ressources and political alliances that will be rolled out by this policy of winners and losers.
What we can see is that the GCC are on the loser side. Trump is ready to sacrifice them. Dubai is dead as the showcase example of what postnational globalism meant. Kuwait has ceased to fulfill its delivering contracts invoking force majeure. Qatar or Bahrein are in no better shape and we could see these vassal sheikdoms going through major political changes.
Israel has/had big plans with the GCC in order to become the central trading point between Europe and India, other two big losers abandonned by the US. The globalist are too to be counted among the losing side. China will necessarily ha e to adapt to oil scarcity and maritime strangulation, meaning the age of cheap Amazon just in time Chinese manufacturing is over, hitting hard the globalist corporations to which China is the most important production source and market. For the time being, the luxe industry LMVH has been hit hard at the stock market. Apple, Volkswagen, and others are claiming significant losses in their Chinese businesses.
Another losers: Africa and South America, where Chinese investment has resulted in infrastructure building and a higher participation in world trade.
So, there are many losers. Are there any winners?
First, the US, which are reconfiguring their strategic operational space. Of course the GCC was a major investment and financial source for Wall Street and the political mafia in the US, but the oil cartel and Silicon Valley's interest prevailed, notwithstanding some unrest could break the fragile American political scheme. Then Iran, which was on the verge of suffocation prior to the war, having solved its prowestern infiltration, and substantially reduced the Israeli threat and domination of the region. Irak too is another winner, ousting the US occupation of the country in the span of a few weeks. Then, Russia has been able to loose the noose on its neck, resuming oil (and other commodities) exports at double prices to the world. Japan, Sri Lanka, India are signing Russian oil contracts as we speak. The Hormuz war has had Russia make tens of billions of dollars (or its translation in yuans).
And China? Well, the Belt and Road or BRICS didnt achieve their ambitious goals. India or Brasil proved to be a too weak a partner. Now its the end of an expansion age. China will have to focus in the Asian heartland integration, including 6 counties (Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Mongolia and Kazakhstan, possibly a handful more like Iran, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan or Vietnam that will not be able to ignore such a powerful block's influence) and proactively and kineticly defend it. The age of ghost policies is over for China.
China has 30% of the world's manufacturing capacity. It isn't going to sit idle. It will build something.
US deindustrialization if pretty much a fraud if it can't compete with China. The market for EVs in the US isn't large enough for Detroit, but ICE cars will be out of reach of most people as the Ponzi scheme collapses and more wealth is moved to the Billionaires.
The EU is going to be dependent on Russia for its petroleum NATO will breakup.
The EU may even break up.
The Empire will continue to tell itself that its military can intimidate anyone, but Iran has shown that is no longer true.
Asiatic Global Order has several articles on how the GCC countries are going to react. The US has proven that it can't protect them and that, in fact, US military bases and corporations actually are a threat. There is a majority of Shia in Bahrain. (IIRC). Did you see the locals cheering the attacks on the US radar domes?
When the US leaves, there's nothing left for Israel. While Israel thought it would be able to force the GCC to connect through a pipeline(s) that terminated in Israel, the GCC is going to recognize in the long run, that Iran is no threat. It has amazing defensive military capabilities. But the US has shown that offensive military actions are pretty much doomed. It will be much cheaper to continue to export through the strait even though they'll have to pay a toll.
Besides, Israel has been stupid enough to declare the Türkiye is next. They've pissed off all their neighbors and no one wants them there any longer. I've been told that the Russian Jews may be allowed to come back but there are a significant number of citizens who consider them to be traitors.
I know that I don't want American Jews to come back. We're talking about the Brooklyn Jews who moved to the West bank and just appropriated Palestinian homes. I don't want that Jewish Supremacist racism back in the US where we'll have to hear the persistant whine of anti-Semitism.
"You don't like me because I'm a Jew."
"No, I don't like you because you're an asshole."
Norman Finkelstein, whom I hold in high respect along with several other Jews, called them "Homicidal Maniacs". They committed genocide. They all need to be arrested and placed in jail.
ChinArb has an excellent 5 part series on the old political-economic order (System A) vs the new (System B) A is based on military might. B is based on ability to enable commerce. No need for a peace treaty. Both the US and Iran just retreat into their respective corners and leave one another alone. Iran thrives while the US keeps yelling at the kids to "get off my lawn".
Just like the US blew up Nordstream and forced Europe to sanction Russian energy imports, the US is physically cutting energy from the Middle East to Asia to make overpriced American energy exports not only "viable," but the only option left. The amount of political power the US gains by making its proxies energy dependent on the US and the US alone by literally destroying the competition is a central strategy to America's attempt to maintain its US-led unipolar world order
One potential problem, US oil is not the “right kind” of oil. It is “light sweet crude” one of the products is a lot of naphtha, which isn’t useful by itself. It does get blended into distillates of “heavy sour crude” to create Diesel and Jet fuel. The Heavy crude can be obtained in Canada and Venezuela. Reports are that it will take years to ramp up Venezuela production.
In the meantime, China is weaning itself from ICE vehicles and deploying huge quantities of renewable energy. Thorium reactors are suppose to be available by 2030. Russia will send all the oil China needs and cut off the EU.
Berletic is not wrong to say the target is China. It has always been China since Obama declared the “pivot to Asia”.
The US interests want to make the EU servile and dependent on them through energy control. That is why they either used (or I think created) the 'covid' debacle to create enormous resistance to any policy addressing the climate crisis that would encourage investment in renewables- that would offer energy independence.
It worked extremely well and even clued in pundits like Jonathan Cook, Brian Berletic, Ben Norton and Richard Medhurst don't mention the propaganda the US intersts wish to convey, written in policy papers, that the climate crisis is a left wing plot for control.
The geopolitical implications of the success of the smearing of renewables, as well as failure to address the climate crisis caused by the West but affecting the global majority the most, is massive and no one is even talking about it!
The US interests want to make the EU servile and dependent on them through energy control. That is why they either used (or I think created) the 'covid' debacle to create enormous resistance to any policy addressing the climate crisis that would encourage investment in renewables- that would offer energy independence.
It worked extremely well and even clued in pundits like Jonathan Cook, Brian Berletic, Ben Norton and Richard Medhurst don't mention the propaganda the US intersts wish to convey, written in policy papers, that the climate crisis is a left wing plot for control.
The geopolitical implications of the success of the smearing of renewables, as well as failure to address the climate crisis caused by the West but affecting the global majority the most, is massive and no one is even talking about it!
Lenin wrote a wonderful and 100% correct book about this subject: Imperialism-The Highest Stage of Capitalism..
I totally trust Michael Hudson. He has fleshed out what I suspected.
😀 😃
Re: US economy outlook- Iran War fallout '+'
- Why aren't there any journalists asking experts for an 'item' by 'item' estimation timeline of financial effects for 'everyday' Americans based on:
🔻fuel/energy shortages/losses(Hormuz closure+'infrastructure' loss) ❌ supply chain disruptions ❌shortages of food & 'goods' (i.e. all the commodities made from oil & the byproducts of oil refining) ❌ job loss due to all of the above ❌ the eventual loss of the Petro-dollar ❌ etc....?????⁉
It may need a conversation that comes as a result of a brainstorming 'session' by a varied group of geopolitical economists -
- the average (or even topmost) Market analyst or Keynesian just is not well-informed enough about ALL the factors we are facing in this 'perfect storm' of ECONOMIC CATASTROPHE our country is facing..
And so it should
Thank you for yet another excellent post. And climate change is speeding up. Any "stability" is an illusion. Maybe AI can figure out how to bail itself out...better hurry.
The USA audience can understand the private debt market and especially those under 35 yrs old, many of whom suffer usurious interest rates, including student debt. I must have missed the point for international viewers, and the impact on their markets, since I didn't get the leverage factor, similar to the 2008 debacle with highly inflated mortgages. So, my question is "has US private debt been marketed abroad in a similar way as Merrill, DLJ and others did back then"?
Hormuz is just another episode of WW III. News Broke that the US could choke Malacca two in coordination with Indonesia. This is the maritime blockade China was preparing to since the Belt and Road initicative was launched. In the meantime, the US has achieved to beat oil export records and regain the dollar position linked to the oil world monopoly. That, the re-industrialitation of the country by weapons manufacturing and the opening of crypto as legal tender are the three pillars of the Trump's bunch strategy. Forget about the daily comedy and PR stunts. What matters is the rearrangement of the world ressources and political alliances that will be rolled out by this policy of winners and losers.
What we can see is that the GCC are on the loser side. Trump is ready to sacrifice them. Dubai is dead as the showcase example of what postnational globalism meant. Kuwait has ceased to fulfill its delivering contracts invoking force majeure. Qatar or Bahrein are in no better shape and we could see these vassal sheikdoms going through major political changes.
Israel has/had big plans with the GCC in order to become the central trading point between Europe and India, other two big losers abandonned by the US. The globalist are too to be counted among the losing side. China will necessarily ha e to adapt to oil scarcity and maritime strangulation, meaning the age of cheap Amazon just in time Chinese manufacturing is over, hitting hard the globalist corporations to which China is the most important production source and market. For the time being, the luxe industry LMVH has been hit hard at the stock market. Apple, Volkswagen, and others are claiming significant losses in their Chinese businesses.
Another losers: Africa and South America, where Chinese investment has resulted in infrastructure building and a higher participation in world trade.
So, there are many losers. Are there any winners?
First, the US, which are reconfiguring their strategic operational space. Of course the GCC was a major investment and financial source for Wall Street and the political mafia in the US, but the oil cartel and Silicon Valley's interest prevailed, notwithstanding some unrest could break the fragile American political scheme. Then Iran, which was on the verge of suffocation prior to the war, having solved its prowestern infiltration, and substantially reduced the Israeli threat and domination of the region. Irak too is another winner, ousting the US occupation of the country in the span of a few weeks. Then, Russia has been able to loose the noose on its neck, resuming oil (and other commodities) exports at double prices to the world. Japan, Sri Lanka, India are signing Russian oil contracts as we speak. The Hormuz war has had Russia make tens of billions of dollars (or its translation in yuans).
And China? Well, the Belt and Road or BRICS didnt achieve their ambitious goals. India or Brasil proved to be a too weak a partner. Now its the end of an expansion age. China will have to focus in the Asian heartland integration, including 6 counties (Russia, Belarus, North Korea, Mongolia and Kazakhstan, possibly a handful more like Iran, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan or Vietnam that will not be able to ignore such a powerful block's influence) and proactively and kineticly defend it. The age of ghost policies is over for China.
China has 30% of the world's manufacturing capacity. It isn't going to sit idle. It will build something.
US deindustrialization if pretty much a fraud if it can't compete with China. The market for EVs in the US isn't large enough for Detroit, but ICE cars will be out of reach of most people as the Ponzi scheme collapses and more wealth is moved to the Billionaires.
The EU is going to be dependent on Russia for its petroleum NATO will breakup.
The EU may even break up.
The Empire will continue to tell itself that its military can intimidate anyone, but Iran has shown that is no longer true.
Asiatic Global Order has several articles on how the GCC countries are going to react. The US has proven that it can't protect them and that, in fact, US military bases and corporations actually are a threat. There is a majority of Shia in Bahrain. (IIRC). Did you see the locals cheering the attacks on the US radar domes?
When the US leaves, there's nothing left for Israel. While Israel thought it would be able to force the GCC to connect through a pipeline(s) that terminated in Israel, the GCC is going to recognize in the long run, that Iran is no threat. It has amazing defensive military capabilities. But the US has shown that offensive military actions are pretty much doomed. It will be much cheaper to continue to export through the strait even though they'll have to pay a toll.
Besides, Israel has been stupid enough to declare the Türkiye is next. They've pissed off all their neighbors and no one wants them there any longer. I've been told that the Russian Jews may be allowed to come back but there are a significant number of citizens who consider them to be traitors.
I know that I don't want American Jews to come back. We're talking about the Brooklyn Jews who moved to the West bank and just appropriated Palestinian homes. I don't want that Jewish Supremacist racism back in the US where we'll have to hear the persistant whine of anti-Semitism.
"You don't like me because I'm a Jew."
"No, I don't like you because you're an asshole."
Norman Finkelstein, whom I hold in high respect along with several other Jews, called them "Homicidal Maniacs". They committed genocide. They all need to be arrested and placed in jail.
ChinArb has an excellent 5 part series on the old political-economic order (System A) vs the new (System B) A is based on military might. B is based on ability to enable commerce. No need for a peace treaty. Both the US and Iran just retreat into their respective corners and leave one another alone. Iran thrives while the US keeps yelling at the kids to "get off my lawn".
Just like the US blew up Nordstream and forced Europe to sanction Russian energy imports, the US is physically cutting energy from the Middle East to Asia to make overpriced American energy exports not only "viable," but the only option left. The amount of political power the US gains by making its proxies energy dependent on the US and the US alone by literally destroying the competition is a central strategy to America's attempt to maintain its US-led unipolar world order
Brian Berletic
One potential problem, US oil is not the “right kind” of oil. It is “light sweet crude” one of the products is a lot of naphtha, which isn’t useful by itself. It does get blended into distillates of “heavy sour crude” to create Diesel and Jet fuel. The Heavy crude can be obtained in Canada and Venezuela. Reports are that it will take years to ramp up Venezuela production.
In the meantime, China is weaning itself from ICE vehicles and deploying huge quantities of renewable energy. Thorium reactors are suppose to be available by 2030. Russia will send all the oil China needs and cut off the EU.
Berletic is not wrong to say the target is China. It has always been China since Obama declared the “pivot to Asia”.
The US interests want to make the EU servile and dependent on them through energy control. That is why they either used (or I think created) the 'covid' debacle to create enormous resistance to any policy addressing the climate crisis that would encourage investment in renewables- that would offer energy independence.
It worked extremely well and even clued in pundits like Jonathan Cook, Brian Berletic, Ben Norton and Richard Medhurst don't mention the propaganda the US intersts wish to convey, written in policy papers, that the climate crisis is a left wing plot for control.
The geopolitical implications of the success of the smearing of renewables, as well as failure to address the climate crisis caused by the West but affecting the global majority the most, is massive and no one is even talking about it!
what climate crisis. The melting of Greenland? The flooding of New York? That is another scam, for decades.
The US interests want to make the EU servile and dependent on them through energy control. That is why they either used (or I think created) the 'covid' debacle to create enormous resistance to any policy addressing the climate crisis that would encourage investment in renewables- that would offer energy independence.
It worked extremely well and even clued in pundits like Jonathan Cook, Brian Berletic, Ben Norton and Richard Medhurst don't mention the propaganda the US intersts wish to convey, written in policy papers, that the climate crisis is a left wing plot for control.
The geopolitical implications of the success of the smearing of renewables, as well as failure to address the climate crisis caused by the West but affecting the global majority the most, is massive and no one is even talking about it!
the Airplane is going to crash
“Could”? Give me a break.