The historic re-election of President Lula da Silva in Brazil is a victory for BRICS, Palestine, the Brazilian working class, the project of Latin American integration, and the Global South.
It is a significant blow to Israel, US dollar hegemony, and the US government’s attempt to impose its control over Latin America — in what the Donald Trump administration calls the Donroe Doctrine.
It also severely undermines Washington’s plan to exploit Brazil’s critical minerals and rare earths, which the US sought to use to create a new global supply chain that excludes China.
In Brazil’s presidential runoff on 25 October, Lula won with nearly 52% of votes, compared to a bit over 48% for far-right candidate Flávio Bolsonaro.
The 2026 presidential election in Brazil has major implications not only for Latin America, but for the entire world.
Brazil is the seventh-most populous country on Earth, with a population of more than 213 million people.
Brazil also has the world’s eighth-biggest economy — larger than the economies of the United Kingdom and France.
Brazil plays an important role in international politics, as a powerful diplomatic force. And it is a top 10 global producer of oil, agricultural goods, and critical minerals.
Lula advocates for BRICS, Latin American integration, Global South unity, and Palestine
What was striking about Brazil’s 2026 election was how the two main presidential candidates represented completely opposing political projects.
Lula is a left-wing politician from the Workers’ Party. He comes from a poor background and worked for years as a labor organizer. In fact, he lost a finger in a factory accident when he was 17 years old.
Lula is also a strong supporter of the project of Latin American regional integration, advocating for organizations like the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), Unasur, and Mercosur. Brazil is absolutely integral in this process, as the biggest country in the region.
Lula has long promoted a non-aligned foreign policy, and he wants Brazil to deepen its collaboration with other countries in the Global South.
In the spirit of Global South solidarity, Lula has staunchly supported Palestine. The Brazilian president has accused Israel of committing genocide against the Palestinian people in Gaza (a charge supported by a UN independent international commission). He even compared the Israeli regime to Nazi Germany.
Back in 2009, during his first term as Brazilian president, Lula played a crucial role in co-founding BRICS. (It was originally called BRIC, before South Africa joined in 2010.) He has since pushed for the expansion of the organization.
Lula has also openly challenged US hegemony. He has publicly called for Global South countries to work together to oppose the dominance of the US dollar. He even proposed that BRICS should create a new, neutral international trading currency.
Lula likewise advocated for a regional currency in South America, to end the region’s dependence on the US dollar.
In short, Lula’s leadership has been indispensable in promoting a more multipolar world, in which Global South countries have more representation, resources, and dignity.
The Bolsonaros serve the interests of the United States and Brazilian oligarchs
The other major candidate in Brazil’s presidential election could hardly have been more different.
Flávio Bolsonaro is the son of Brazil’s far-right former leader Jair Bolsonaro. Jair could not run for president again, because he organized a military coup after refusing to accept his loss to Lula in the 2022 election.
Jair Bolsonaro, a former military officer, admitted in court that he conspired with the military to try to hold on to power. However, his coup attempt failed, and he was sentenced to 27 years in prison. (Although he has not actually been sent to prison, and has instead been allowed to live under house arrest, from which he has tried to flee.)
The Bolsonaro political dynasty is as pro-US as possible. When he was president, Jair Bolsonaro served Washington’s interests above those of his own country.
Flávio is also very closely allied with Donald Trump. He even traveled to Washington during his campaign in order to pose for a photo op with the US president at the White House.
Flávio Bolsonaro pledged to sabotage the project of Latin American regional integration, subordinating Brazil to the United States.
He also sought to limit Brazil’s engagement in BRICS and destabilize the Global South-led organization.
Inside Brazil, the main support base for the Bolsonaro political dynasty are the country’s enormous landlords.
Brazil is a commodity powerhouse that exports many food stables, like soy beans, coffee, beef, sugar, and corn.
Brazil’s agriculture sector is dominated by massive corporations, which are led by oligarchic landowners who are overwhelmingly right-wing.
These landlord oligarchs have funded the Bolsonaro family for years.
The Bolsonaro dynasty is also deeply implicated in corruption. Between 1990 and 2022, the family bought at least 107 properties, 51 of which they purchased with cash.
Israel backs Brazil’s Bolsonaro dynasty
Another major patron of the Bolsonaro dynasty has been Israel.
When Jair Bolsonaro was president, he would regularly appear at political events surrounded by the US and Israeli flags. Flávio and his supporters have done the same.
In January, Flávio Bolsonaro traveled to Israel, where he met with the regime’s leader Benjamin Netanyahu — who faces an outstanding arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, which charged him with carrying out crimes against humanity against the Palestinian people in Gaza.
Flávio Bolsonaro is so close to Israel that, when he launched his presidential campaign in Brazil in July 2026, Netanyahu spoke in a video message on a giant screen behind him.
During his trip to Israel in January, Flávio and his brother Eduardo traveled with Israeli settler-colonialists to the West Bank, which according to international is Palestinian territory that has been illegally occupied by Israel for decades.
While there, Flávio Bolsonaro said he supports Israel annexing the West Bank. He even posed for a photo with a map showing Israel colonizing all of historic Palestine, including the West Bank and Gaza.
The Bolsonaros flee to the United States, evading justice for their crimes
After losing the election to Lula this October, Flávio Bolsonaro fled Brazil and traveled to the United States. The Trump administration confirmed that it arranged a visa for him and his family.
Flávio was under criminal investigation in Brazil, based on well substantiated charges of money laundering and corruption.
His brother Eduardo, a far-right former politician, also fled to the US. Eduardo is a fugitive from justice who faced legal consequences after assisting his father in his failed coup attempt against Lula.
While living in the United States, Eduardo Bolsonaro has been working closely with Trump’s far-right MAGA political movement.
In fact, when Flávio met with Trump at the White House, he was joined by Eduardo.
After Jair Bolsonaro’s coup attempt failed, he also fled to the United States. He lived for several months in Florida.
Jair Bolsonaro said his son Eduardo is even seeking US citizenship.
The United States meddled in Brazil’s election to hurt Lula, but failed
The United States blatantly meddled in Brazil’s 2026 election, in an attempt to prevent Lula from staying in power.
Employees of Meta, the US Big Tech corporation that owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, admitted that the company censored Lula’s accounts in the lead-up to the first round of the October election, while simultaneously promoting Flávio Bolsonaro.
The media outlet Intercept Brasil reported that Flávio Bolsonaro and his right-wing party contracted a US company that sought to manipulate the election by using AI technology to create false accounts on social media, spreading disinformation demonizing Lula, the Workers’ Party, and left-wing politicians.
Donald Trump also put his thumb on the scale. He hit Brazil with punitive tariffs of as high as 50%. The US leader admitted that these measures were not due to a trade dispute, but were rather politically motivated, aimed at supporting the Bolsonaro family. (Ironically, the US has a chronic trade surplus with Brazil, not a deficit.)
Nevertheless, the overt US interference may have backfired, because Lula repeatedly condemned it during the presidential campaign, insisting that voters should back him in order to defend Brazil’s sovereignty.
Lula warned that the United States was trying to “colonize” Brazil.
The Bolsonaros sought to privatize Brazil’s oil industry and give its rare earth minerals to the US
It was not just Brazil’s political system that the United States wanted to control, but also its natural resources.
Brazil has consistently been among the world’s top 10 oil-producing countries. It has enormous reserves of petroleum.
When Jair Bolsonaro was president, he said he wanted to privatize Brazil’s state-owned oil giant Petrobras. He would likely have done so, if he had won the 2022 election.
Flávio Bolsonaro similarly pledged to deregulate Brazil’s state-dominated oil sector, offering US corporations access to his country’s natural resources.
Moreover, Brazil is home to huge supplies of critical minerals. It is the second-biggest producer of iron ore on Earth (after Australia).
Brazil also has the world’s second-largest reserves of rare earths, representing 23% of the known global supply.
The United States is especially interested in exploiting Brazil’s rare earths, because it is dependent on China for the materials.
China holds half of the world’s reserves of rare earths, and processes nearly 70%.
The US government has sought to create a new supply chain for critical minerals, cutting out China. Brazil was in its sights as the potential alternative.
The CEO of an Australian mining corporation told German news outlet DW this May, “The next big, rare earth projects in the world will be in Brazil”.
DW noted that, this April, a Brazilian mining company sold Brazil’s sole active rare earth mine to the corporation USA Rare Earths for $2.8 billion.
What DW did not mention is that USA Rare Earths is partially owned by the US government. The Trump administration took a 10% equity stake in the company.
In other words, a US government-backed company is already exploiting Brazil’s rare earth minerals. And it wanted much more.
Flávio Bolsonaro publicly pledged that he would give Brazil’s rare earths to the United States.
In a speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in the US this March, he declared, “Brazil is the solution for the United States to no longer depend on China for rare earths and critical minerals”.
Lula, on the other hand, wants Brazil to use its natural resources to benefit its own development, not US corporations and shareholders.
The New York Times reported that the Trump administration has pressured Brazil to join its efforts to create a new anti-China supply chain for rare earths, but Lula is not interested.
Can I be the first to provide condolences to Lula’s family / friends on hearing of his unfortunate 'accident' next week?
Just because Flávio Bolsonaro fled to the United States, it would be foolish and premature to be lulled into complacency.
Jair Bolsonaro secretly left Brazil for Florida in the United States on December 30, 2022, two days before his presidential term ended.
When his supporters attacked government offices in Brasília on January 8, 2023, Bolsonaro was in Orlando, Florida.
So, Flávio Bolsonaro may be in the US plotting an even more serious attack on democracy in Brazil. The voters and courts don't have the final say, the capitalist ruling class and the military have the final say. And they support Bolsonaro. As does Trump.
Brazil's benchmark stock index, the Ibovespa, tumbled 13.9% on Monday, October 26, 2026, marking its sharpest single-day drop since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. That tells us how much the capitalists wanted Bolsonaro to win.
The majority of the military officer corps undoubtedly leans towards Bolsonaro, and the cops are overwhelming for a coup, as we saw thousands of cops directly involved in organizing the January 8, 2023 coup attempt.
The working class can have the ultimate say only by millions going into the streets and out of the factories to use their decisive power to bring the country and economy to a halt in the event of another and likely more dangerous coup attempt. However, that requires working class leadership and a movement and party. They have none. Certainly not the capitalist PT, which will never mobilize the Brazilian working class against the capitalist ruling class, any more than the Democrat Party in the United States would mobilize against Wall Street and the Pentagon.
So it would be premature to write off the threat of a move to subvert or overturn the election results.
And in any case should Lula remain president, it would merely return to the status quo ante of a few months ago, with the same problems devastating the working class and farmers, and the same growing rightists with a sharpening polarization.
The PT offers absolutely no perspective for workers. They are too busy looking at the stock market.
It would be foolish to be complacent between now and January, in Brazil, or in the United States. Both Bolsonaro and Trump clearly are hostile to bourgeois democracy and seek to impose authoritarian regimes.
The most dangerous delusion of all would be to believe that the mere act of voting or filing lawsuits can resist individuals and movements that have already declared themselves above the law.
Only millions of workers mobilized in the streets and in our factories can resist an attack to overturn the Constitution and impose one man rule. Disciplined peaceful defense of our social and democratic rights needs to be calmly discussed and organized now before it's too late.
In the United States, public rallies—independent from the Democrat and Republican parties—should be called opposing any attempts to subvert, annul or overturn votes, or refusal to seat victors. This should not be seen as endorsing either of the two capitalist parties but a defense of the democratic rights of the working class.
Don't wait for tanks in the streets. Then it will be too late.
________________________
BRAZIL: DEFEAT OF THE RIGHT—THIS ISN'T OVER
_________
https://substack.com/@aaronruby/note/c-370755416?r=7jhui4
The defeat of rightist Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil should be celebrated by working people everywhere. It is a blow to the right and to Trump. But the struggle is far from over.
Lula da Silva won a fourth term with 51.79% of valid votes against Bolsonaro's 48.21%—64.26 million to 59.83 million. Bolsonaro had led the first round, 47.03% to 45.16%. Over 128 million voted in the runoff, nearly 3 million more than in the first round. Abstention fell from 21.08% to 19.22%. Yet over 30 million Brazilians, overwhelmingly workers and farmers, did not vote.
Millions voted not for what Lula promised to do, but against what Bolsonaro threatened to do. The PT's support remains lukewarm after years of governing for Brazilian capitalism. This was an anti-Bolsonaro vote against an admirer of military dictatorship and ally of Trump.
Ominously, Flávio Bolsonaro had refused to concede, still alleging fraud and seeking to annul the runoff. His father, Jair Bolsonaro, was convicted of plotting to overturn the 2022 election. On January 8, 2023, thousands of his supporters, drawn from the reactionary movement of agribusiness, gun enthusiasts and religious conservatives—the so-called “Beef, Bullets and Bible” constituency—stormed and ransacked the presidential palace, Congress and Supreme Court, all located around Brasília's Praça dos Três Poderes (Three Powers Plaza). This was an assault on all three branches of government—the entire constitutional structure of Brazilian bourgeois democracy.
Bolsonaro may have lost an election, but the capitalist class has lost neither its wealth nor its political power, and the police, military and other institutions of the capitalist state remain loyal to the ruling class and sympathetic to Bolsonaro. Further attacks before Lula's January 1 inauguration remain a danger.
Opposition to attempts to overturn the election result cannot be entrusted exclusively to the courts, Congress or the military high command. Workers' organizations, trade unions, students and poor farmers must prepare independent mass mobilizations against any attempt to overturn the vote. The democratic rights of millions cannot be left at the mercy of the institutions beholden to the ruling rich.
A Bolsonaro victory would have reinforced the narrative of an unstoppable rightist march across Latin America, following seven consecutive rightist electoral victories in Ecuador, Bolivia, Honduras, Chile, Peru, Costa Rica and Colombia. It would also have strengthened Trump's international offensive. Bolsonaro's hostility toward Cuba and the Palestinians threatened to reinforce Washington's economic strangulation of Cuba and its support for Israel's war against the Palestinians. A Brazilian government more closely aligned with Washington would have weakened regional opposition to US intervention.
The PT's class collaboration has not overcome the causes that breed the right. It has helped preserve the social conditions from which the right draws strength. By subordinating workers' demands to Brazilian capital, agribusiness and financial markets, the PT has repeatedly frustrated millions who looked to it for fundamental change. Bolsonaroism exploits that disillusionment while offering an even more reactionary capitalist program. After 18 years in government, the PT has neither broken the power of the big landowners nor led workers to fight the capitalists for better wages and conditions.
Workers in Brazil and everywhere need genuine working-class parties—not merely to contest elections, but to organize and lead the struggle against capitalist exploitation: defend strikes, fight for higher wages and land reform, support land occupations by poor farmers, mobilize against racism and attacks on immigrants, and defend social and democratic rights in the streets and workplaces.
Above all, we need parties that fight for working people to take political power into their own hands, replace undemocratic capitalist rule and establish their own truly democratic governments of workers and farmers representing the vast majority of humanity.
A luta continua!
The struggle continues!